Worse Outcomes
2020-09-14
I wrote at length about Detroitification, but i want to explore some further possibilities for the future of Seattle, and the rest of the nation, as a result of the social changes and terrorism currently unfolding in the US.
Detroit has become a gangland. Seattle and other cities in 2020 could be worse, due to a unique feature that wasn’t present at the heart of Detroit’s fall from grace - socialism.
Detroit suffered from deep-seated racism against its white, hispanic, and asian residents, and continues to be something of a no-go zone for anyone that isn’t black. But it didn’t have socialists trying to co-opt the message. It moves between names like a mutating virus, but the current movement to be overtaken by socialist actors is BLM, currently rioting and burning nationwide. What might have been authentic race riots have been taken over by "allies" that wrestle control from black organizers, and claim to speak and act for them. It’s attempted to take over the yellow jacket protests in France, and pretty much any organized political statement that attacks the country that it lives in.
The worst case outcome is that Seattle doesn’t become Detroit, it becomes Derry. A hotbed of terrorist violence aimed at fighting anyone that looks too hard at their policies, actions, goals, or claims. While the IRA aimed for independence, the socialists in the USA desire an overthrow of the current government so that they can take over. It’s not seccessionist in nature, it is insurrectionist.
If the socialists are not dealt with, and their terror network continues to grow in influence, funding, and boldness across the country, we will absolutely see an American Troubles, the rotten hearts of which will take place in places like Seattle. Terrorists will be recruited and trained, operators and organizers will scheme in safety, and increasingly deadly and extreme measures will be taken against non-socialist citizens and law enforcement. In the darkest future, police of good character will simply quit due to the city’s unwillingness to seriously combat the socialist threat - leading to socialists taking both de-facto as well as official control of the city.
Should such an infection continue to spread, we’ll likely see an American Red Terror, such as what happened in Spain or Russia.
Trump wins
If Trump wins, he’ll have no reason not to give federal officers every tool needed to crush the terrorists - but this might not destroy them immediately. It will cut out the violent extremists, but the true issue is that a huge number of sympathizers, apologists, and backers are willing to continue supporting terrorist causes. The danger to America is not that there are rioters, it is that there is a network willing to fundraise, equip, train, apologize, and propagandize for them. This worst case is what I refer to as Afghanistanization - heavy-handed techniques are used to put down destructive elements, but federal officers are unable to pull the weed out by the root - and it simply sprouts again periodically. This is the same issue the US has had fighting in Afghanistan - we kill people holding guns or planting bombs, but we’re largely unable to completely root out the terror network. We arrest or kill a rotating cast of moneymen, organizers, trainers, and those who directly aid them - but not enough of what they do are crimes for us to be able to stop them entirely.
The only way a strong-handed strategy would work is if it were combined with a variant of McCarthyism - a willingness to suppress vile elements by sacrificing the principles of liberty. We may have done it once, but it is unlikely that it will happen again in the current climate; so a strong law enforcement response will result in Afghanistanization.
Biden wins
Biden has a slim chance of winning the election, and the outcome of that is less clear. He has no real mind of his own, but the Democratic establishment has been trying to control socialist elements for decades, and has largely succeeded until recently. If Democrats win, they may be able to demobilize socialists with some platitudes or by refusing to help them win elections, effectively pushing them out of the party. So far, socialists seem resistant to platitudes, and being pushed out of the party may spell the death of the party - since it needs to keep as many voters as possible in its tent to counter regular Americans voting Republican.
The two outcomes are either that they do not confront socialists strongly enough, and the infection continues to worsen until a proper Red Terror begins in earnest, or they manage to contain and redirect the terror network to less violent and socialist ends. The odds are not great.
And then?
No matter how 2020 plays out, it seems quite likely that American Troubles will be followed in short order by a Red Terror, and if the socialists continue to gain strength through fear, they might control enough territory to conduct a formal civil war.
Civil war is something whispered about today, in earnest. Generally, socialists do not have the strength or funding to take on the American military. They know they’re unable to fight the military, what they will need to do is target the civilian leadership, in order to seize power "legitimately". Killing enough legislators or a sitting president might allow them to slip into control of meaningful positions of power. Or, simply forcing areas to vote for their candidates out of fear of retribution in order to swing elections in their favor. Voter fraud is quite likely, and interference is guaranteed. They will probably receive some amount of funding from foreign backers at that stage - China likely being the originating source, but probably laundered through South American sources - groups that are "brown" enough to satisfy the racial standards of BLM.
The military’s role in this is unclear, depending entirely on if the socialists are able to commit a successful Beer Hall Putsch, meaning that the military will be told by "legitimate" civilian government to stand down and allow the socialists to reign terror across the country. Even without a coup, it seems likely that the US military will not consider a war against citizens that are not seccessionist.
If the military stands down, the civil war will take place between citizen orgnaizations rather than organized militaries. This is a worst-case scenario, since it involves a balkanization of the US. If the military conducts operations to root out socialists, it’ll turn into a perpetual war. If they enter against the American people, the socialists will certainly take power, but extended unrest and freedom-fighting will likely occur.
Let us hope
I genuinely hope these are simply paranoid mumblings of someone reading too far into the threat being posed. I hope that our country is stronger and more capable of standing up to terror and genocide than it seems to be. But those hopes, right now, are small.
